Of course, if there is the scale of the fiscal surplus, and it also suggests that under the slogan of active fiscal policy in Cheap Gucci Belts, the actual execution to tighten fiscal policy, at least effect is the same. I'm afraid that was a key reason, soros thought Cheap Gucci Belts fiscal austerity.
The reason we think that Cheap Gucci Belts 2014 biggest threat is not inflation, Buy deflation, not is based on the Gucci. Buy starting from the principle of inflation, the perspective of real money supply. Some people say that Cheap Gucci Belts M2 has exceeded 100 trillion yuan, Buy in my opinion, really can realize the circulation of broad money less than 80 trillion, nearly 25 trillion yuan of money has been locked by the central bank.
Then there is a lock long short of monetary policy, makes commercial Banks have more short-term money to maintain the existing total assets (such as loans), greatly improve the liquidity demand, so they have to issue short-term financing products, borrow short-term funds, in response to the demand of the fast turnaround. Short-term liquidity demand more and more commercial Banks, Buy also need to pay legal deposit reserve short-term deposits?
Of course, as long as across legal JiaoKuanRi, even can run in a day. Which are far more big commercial Banks pay statutory reserve. Leading to a result: the face of it, its quantity many, Buy the more monetary term tend to a lot, can be used in the real economy to lend less and less money. And, of course, is to economize the surplus, we strongly support the central spirit of saving, of course, Buy the money must be deposited in commercial Banks in theory can ensure the liquidity of commercial bank balance. Otherwise, on the one hand, is a central lock long short, shrink the monetary mechanism;
On the one hand, finance, put the money in the bank account that the results won't be deflation? My answer is: a deflation happens. Us inflation, deflation is often judged by the Gucci, Buy under the condition of the reality of Cheap Gucci Belts and the world history, focus on the Gucci will be one-sided understanding of the currency issue. All the rigid and dogmatic practices, will pose great harm to Cheap Gucci Belts economy,
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Cheap Gucci Belts needs what kind of exchange rate system? Is a free floating exchange rate system? Or a managed floating exchange rate system? What kind of exchange rate regime or the other? This problem not only in Cheap Gucci Belts, in fact, this is all a weak currency countries are looking for, Buy always also can not find the answer to a worldwide problem. Why this question? Because, based on the paradox of the exchange rate system has been plagued by Cheap Gucci Belts. Continued appreciation in the yuan 8 years, more and more hot money, more and more like arbitrage in Cheap Gucci Belts; And the speculative inflows of hot money, also forced the endless upward. We don't want too much foreign exchange reserves, Buy the actual is no matter how the yuan appreciation, have rigid increase in foreign exchange reserves, and as long as the economy developed countries, Cheap Gucci Belts foreign exchange reserves increase will speed up.
More importantly, this endless currency appreciation, will make Cheap Gucci Belts Mired in deflation. The currency? The problem is that if, in accordance with market rules, the renminbi was not depreciation of the reasons. Do not fall, for example, the RMB interest rate rise, the market supply of foreign exchange, the Replica Gucci Belts economy was largely in the healthy range, which constitutes the core elements of absolute renminbi appreciation. So, want to value must also have a special method, such as the central bank intends to guide the market interest rates downward, reduce the hot money arbitrage space, and expelling hot money to balance the foreign exchange market supply and demand. Buy even so, Cheap Gucci Belts processing trade formed by the rigid surplus will not change the state of the foreign exchange market supply.